India Denies Poll Violence in Bangladesh of Concern
Despite reports of sanctuaries MEA says no threat to India's security and safety
http://www.security-risks.com/news/india-denies-poll-violence-in-bangladesh-of-concern-448.html

Indian MOD’s AgustaWestland Dilemma: Joint Ventures at Risk
Ministry of Defence and Foreign Investment Promotion Board have adopted contrary policies for joint ventures creating uncertainty
http://www.security-risks.com/security-issues-south-asia/military-contracts/mods-agustawestland-dilemma-joint-ventures-at-risk-2258.html

India Iran Relations: A Boost from Nuclear Agreement?
NSA Menon is gingering up the bureaucracy to take advantage of the wndow particularly to fast track Chabahar port
http://www.security-risks.com/security-issues-south-asia/nuclear/india-iran-relations-a-boost-from-nuclear-agreement-2259.html

Legacy of Kayani Era: First Impressions?
An overview of legacy of Pakistan's former army chief the day he handed over baton to his successor General Raheel Sharif
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/pakistan/legacy-of-kayani-era-first-impressions-2260.html

Myanmar continuing challenges of the peace processNCCT rescinds elements of ceasefire draft indicating that there are many challenges to the peace process despite some progress at Chiang Mai
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/myanmar/ncct-rescinds-elements-of-ceasefire-draft-2261.html

Pak Army chief -Sharif Makes Safe Choice,Supersedes Musharraf Protégé Aslam
Pakistan will also have a new Defence Minister and Chief Justice, Jilani who is reportedly likely to be less activist than the present incumbent Iftikhar Chaudhry
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/pakistan/pak-army-chief-sharif-makes-safe-choice-2257.html

Maldives Post Elections Crack Down on the MilitaryWill this vitiate the atmosphere of apparent bonhomie after the Presidential elections remains to be seen?
http://www.security-risks.com/security-issues-south-asia/military/maldives-post-elections-crack-down-on-the-military-2256.html

India Malaysia Defence Cooperation: Visit of Air Chief
The move is in line with the overall increase in defence cooperation between India and South East Asian countries which is seen by some as India’s own Asia Pacific rebalancing.
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/india-defence/india-malaysia-defence-cooperation-visit-of-air-chief-2255.html

FORESIGHT 26 NOVEMBER REFWD WITH LINKS
Taliban Losses, Afghan Gains
Rahul Bhonsle analyses the Report by UN Sanctions Monitoring team to Security Council which highlights gains made by Afghan security forces in 2013, though there is a long way to go to defeat the Taliban or bring them to the negotiating table
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/afghanistan/taliban-losses-afghan-gains-2252.html

Public and Private sector should work as competitors, not rivals: Defence Minister AntonyDefence Minister seeks collaborative approach by industry to facilitate indigenization but for that a level playing field is important, the pendulum is swinging from the public to the private sector and back.
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/india-defence/public-and-private-sector-should-work-as-competitors-not-rivals-antony-2253.html

Israelis, Saudis and the Iranian Agreement
George Friedman analyses the impact of the seminal nuclear agreement with Iran on West Asia and response of Israel and Saudi Arabia who had stiffly resisted the deal
http://www.security-risks.com/security-issues-south-asia/nuclear/israelis-saudis-and-the-iranian-agreement-2251.html

Chiang Mai conference highlights obstacles in Myanmar peace process
Ethnic armed group leaders and representatives from Myanmar’s political parties gathered in Chiang Mai, Thailand last weekend to engage in political dialogues but there are challenges to the peace process. Continued recruitment by respective militaries, sustained armed conflicts, problems with war refugees, and the slow implementation of peace itself are all standing in the way of a ceasefire and national amity.
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/myanmar/chiang-mai-conference-highlights-obstacles-in-myanmar-peace-process-2254.html

Water security: Reservoirs in India 123% of 10 years average
Storage of important reservoirs in the country as on 31 October, 2013 shows a huge surplus, distribution problems may however mar overall water security in the country with tankers being the main supply source even in the national capital
http://www.security-risks.com/news/water-security-reservoirs-in-india-123-of-10-years-average-447.html

Union Home Minister Outlines Internal Security Challenges

India's varied and number of internal security challenges summarized in the Union Home Minister’s Speech to Director Generals of Police

International Participation in Manipur Sangai Festival

Manipur Sangai Festival unlocks eastern doorway for foreign players, seeks facilities for international tourists.

Union Finance Minister Chidambaram outlines India’s Strong Macro Economic Fundamentals
Chidambaram highlighted young demography, integration of the Indian economy with the world economy, financial system, international clout, consumption-led growth story and maturity of democracy
Indian and French Army Contingents  Joint Training in Lebanon

Indian Battalion in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has successfully carried out Joint Training with the French Army Contingent which acts as the Force Commander’s Reserve

Air Chief Visits Ambala Airbase as it Completes 75 Glorious Years

Visit to Ambala also forms a part of the farewell tour of the Air Chief to one of the oldest air bases in the country

Terrorism in India: Demand and Supply Dynamics

India has made remarkable progress in countering terrorism and insurgency in the country over the past six decades plus after independence. Contrary to popular perception the Indian state’s response to what is known variously as low intensity conflict, asymmetrical wars and so on has been effective in containing conflicts ranging from Jammu and Kashmir in the North West to Nagaland, Manipur and Assam in the North East. Most significantly the redux of Naxalism has been limited to the jungles of Central India. In some cases the spectre of terrorism and militancy has been neutralized be it Punjab or Mizoram through some deft political initiatives that followed containment of violence. Post Mumbai 26/11 an attempt to create a credible counter terror architecture has resulted in admirable results the debate over National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) notwithstanding.

Yet serial bomb blasts in Hyderabad on 21 February which saw the loss of 16 lives is a grim reminder that India has failed to imbibe the lessons from past successes and build on the same to combat new challenges in the post modern nontraditional security spectrum in real time. A demand and supply dynamics is one way at looking at the challenges, responses and the way ahead. Read the full story at link below

http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/india-terrorism/terrorism-in-india:-demand-and-supply-dynamics-1829.html

Pakistan’s Coming Civil Military Standoff?
Civil Military relations in Pakistan have always been testy. While the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) completed the first five year term by a civil government in the country surviving as per some by a hairs breadth, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) seems to be testing waters. This is evident by the move by the government to try former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf for treason for imposing emergency rule in 2007 which is likely to pose new challenges to civil military relations.
Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan  who is a close confidant of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced on 17 November that the government was planning to start proceedings against Musharraf. Khan was quoted by the Pakistani media thus, “Following the judgement of the Supreme Court and a report submitted by an inquiry committee, it has been decided to start proceedings against General Pervez Musharraf (for treason) under Article 6 of the Constitution.” “It is happening for the first time in the history of Pakistan and the decision has been taken in the national interest,” Khan was reported most significantly in a press conference that was televised live.
Supreme Court Chief Justice was requested to set up a tribunal of three high court judges to start the proceedings as per Khan. General Musharraf who is on the Exit Control List has applied to proceed to Dubai to visit his ailing mother. As he was given bail by an Islamabad district court in the Lal Masjid storming case it was believed that a deal has been worked out to facilitate his exit even though he faces more charges in cases related to death of Benazir Bhutto in 2007, of Akbar Bugti in 2006 and detention of judges in 2007.
In a follow up of Interior Minister’s statement the Ministry of Law and Justice Secretary Zafarullah Khan submitted a letter to the Supreme Court registrar for the constitution of the special court under the Criminal Law Amendment (special courts) Act 1976. “Federal government has decided to invoke the power vested in it under section 4 of the Criminal Law Amendment (Special Courts) Act 1976 (Act No.XVII of 1976 to establish a special court to try General (retired) Pervez Musharraf for various offences falling under section 2 of the High Treason (Punishment Act, 1973 (Act LXVILLL of 1973,” said the letter reported in Pak media.

See Full Article at Pakistan’s Coming Civil Military Standoff?

Action to try former chief of the army staff and martial law administrator of the country, General Pervez Musharraf for treason by the government may lead to another round of civil military standoff. The trepidations between the army and the civilian government in Pakistan are far from over says Rahul Bhonsle.

Elections in Nepal: Successful Says India

Election results would be due by middle of December and hopefully a new Constituent Assembly will take post in the country by the end of the year bringing to an end the long drawn impasse and leading the way for Constitution drafting.

Pakistan’s Coming Civil Military Standoff?

Action to try former chief of the army staff and martial law administrator of the country, General Pervez Musharraf for treason by the government may lead to another round of civil military standoff. The trepidations between the army and the civilian government in Pakistan are far from over says Rahul Bhonsle.

Kashmir Militancy: Another Turning Point?

Umong Sethi outlines the political, military and counter terrorism shifts desired in Jammu and Kashmir for resolution of the current political impasse and ensuring peace and stability preceding 2014 elections and expected upsurge in militancy

India Australia Defence Relations: IORA May be the Driver

Maritime Cooperation in IORA is likely to be fostered with other bilateral tracks such as on nuclear energy cooperation and education this is evident in the increased interaction between India and Australia as the Foreign Minister Ms Julie Bishop was in Delhi.

Another Round of Naga Talks in Delhi?

While the visit of the NSCN IM leaders to Delhi is significant a breakthrough may not be evident for now given that the major demand of the NSCN IM of assimilation of Naga dominant areas in other states as Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh into a Greater Nagolim is not likely to be met.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT ASIA 17 NOVEMBER 2013
Trends	Leading Trend	Details -  Click the Link
India-Russia Defence Cooperation	First Ever Joint India-Russia Air Force Exercise to be held in 2014	India and Russia Decide to give New Thrust to Strategic Cooperation by strengthening the training link
Afghanistan Economy	Afghanistan Finance Minister Welcomes Businesses Refutes Security Challenges	Zakhilwal dismissed the doomsday predictions for the country. Zakhilwal claimed that of 30 million population, 18.5 million had access to mobile phones and 30 national television channels.
India National Integration	India will Observe a National Integration Week	“Quami Ekta Week” (National Integration week) will be observed all over the country, from the 19th to 25th November, 2013.
Maldives Presidential Elections	India Welcomes Maldives New President	Indian Prime Minister congratulated Abdul Gayoom, India played a leading role in pushing the leaders towards holding the polls with  Joint Secretary MEA in Maldives monitoring developments
Myanmar Constitutional Amendment	NLD’s ‘constitution rally’ goes ahead in Naypyidaw	Some 88 percent at a public event in Naypyidaw hosted by the National League for Democracy (NLD) said wished to see the 2008 constitution amended